Colorado State University forecasters have issued their fourth prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and the news is the same: a slightly above-normal season, with 16 names storms and eight hurricanes.
However, forecasters noted there is a "lower-than-normal confidence" with the Aug. 6 outlook because of "mixed signals."
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"We anticipate a slightly above average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental UnitedStates coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season," forecasters said.
The prediction came as the National Hurricane Center is monitoring three systems in the Atlantic basin, including the fourth named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Dexter.
Florida residents should continue be prepared. CSU said the Sunshine State continues to lead the United States when it comes to the chance of a named storm or hurricane tracking within 50 miles.
➤ Weather National Hurricane Center tracking 3 systems. Will we see Erin and Fernand soon?
Florida was hit by three hurricanes in 2024, two of them major.
Colorado State University predicting 16 named storms for 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
On Aug. 6, Colorado State University updated its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:
Named storms: 16
Hurricanes: 8
Major hurricanes: 3
The prediction is the same as it's been in June and July.
A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
What are the chances of Florida getting hit by hurricane in 2025?
CSU calculated the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking withing 50 miles for each state from Texas to Maine. Here are the numbers for Florida and its neighboring states:
Probability of named storm tracking within 50 miles of Florida, other US states
Florida: 89%
North Carolina: 73%
Louisiana: 71%
Georgia: 68%
Texas: 66%
Alabama: 63%
South Carolina: 62%
Mississippi: 58%
Probability of hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Florida, other states
Florida: 61%
North Carolina: 43%
Louisiana: 43%
Texas: 41%
Georgia: 34%
South Carolina: 32%
Alabama: 31%
Mississippi: 32%
Probability of major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Florida, other states
Florida: 32%
Texas: 18%
Louisiana: 16%
North Carolina: 9%
South Carolina: 9%
Alabama: 9%
Mississippi: 9%
Georgia: 7%
How many storms are in an 'average' hurricane season?
From 1991 to 2020, the 30-year average for the Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
Probabilities above average for at least one major hurricane to make landfall in US, Florida
"We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," CSU said.
CSU predicted Aug. 6 the probabilities of at least one Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on each of the following coastal areas are above historical averages, compared to prior forecasts:
Entire continental U.S. coastline:
August forecast: 48%
July forecast: 48%
June forecast: 51%
Average from 1880-2020: 43%
U.S. East Coast, including peninsula of Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida):
August forecast: 24%
July forecast: 25%
June forecast: 26%
Average from 1880-2020: 21%
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville:
August forecast: 31%
July forecast: 31%
June forecast: 33%
Average from 1880-2020: 27%
Probability for at least 1 major hurricane tracking through Caribbean
At least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean:
August forecast: 52%
July forecast: 53%
June forecast: 56%
Average from 1880-2020: 47%
Factors considered in CSU's updated hurricane season prediction
Several factors were considered by Colorado State University researchers in the August 2025 Atlantic hurricane season prediction, including:
Water temperatures: "Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal."
Over the past 30 days sea-surface temperatures are "currently tracking between what is typically experienced in an above-normal and a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season."
Neutral ENSO conditions: Cool ENSO neutral conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Combined with warm water temperatures, neutral ENSO conditions typically provide more favorable conditions for "hurricane formation and intensification."
Monsoon rainfall: Rain over West Africa has been slightly above average and is forecast to remain so for the next 45 days. Those conditions are "associated with more vigorous African easterly waves, potentially paving the way for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season."
Precise hurricane season predictions not possible
"Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early July," CSU said.
"Seasonal forecasts are based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years. Moreover, theseforecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike.
"We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season.
"It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years.
"As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."
NOAA predicting 13-19 named storms for 2025 hurricane season
NOAA is predicting there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
Forecasters predict:
Named storms: 13-19
Hurricanes: 6-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
AccuWeather predicts 13-18 named storms for 2025 hurricane season. 3-6 could directly impact US
AccuWeather is predicting the Atlantic hurricane season could bring 13 to 18 named storms in 2025:
Named storms: 13 to 18
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
Direct U.S. impacts: 3-6
How many tropical cyclones are in an average hurricane season?
Based on a 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
2024 season was above-average for tropical cyclones
Five hurricanes and one unnamed subtropical storm made landfall in the U.S. in 2024.
18 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
2025 hurricane names for the Atlantic basin
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea: AN-dree uh
Barry: BAIR-ree
Chantal: shahn-TAHL
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Hurricane prediction by Colorado State updates 2025 Florida threat
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