Regression is just a word, amigos. It doesn’t have to be a dirty word, and sometimes it can be a happy word. Smart fantasy football managers are always trying to identify outliers from the past, with the aim of being careful with what’s likely to happen next. If a player ran unreasonably hot or cold in the prior season, we know that production is likely to level out in the following campaign.
Lester Bangs tried to tell us this a long time ago: You’ll meet everyone again on their long journey to the middle.
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Mind you, if you identify the right positive outliers (or avoid the right negative ones), you have a strong first step towards winning your league. So today’s assignment is an important one — let’s find some statistical outliers from the 2024 season and try to figure out how to project those situations going forward.
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Jackson didn’t win the MVP in 2024, but he surely had his best season, setting career bests in several categories (passing yards, touchdown passes, QB rating, touchdown to interception ratio; just to name a few). But his touchdown percentage of 8.6% will be hard to repeat — consider that he had rates of 4.2, 5.2 and 5.3 in the three previous seasons.
Spin: Although Jackson probably just had what will stand as the best season of his career, it’s also reflective of a talented player reaching total command of the game — like many athletes, Jackson found a spike year in his age-27 season. It’s foolish to expect a major drop-off given Baltimore’s loaded offense and the shrewd schemes of OC Todd Monken, and Jackson rightfully will be the QB1 on many (perhaps most) draft boards. Josh Allen would never admit it publicly, but he’d surely trade supporting casts in a second.
RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles
You surely know the stat by now — Barkley had 482 touches last year (including the playoffs), a gigantic number. But there’s another stat I can’t get out of my mind — Barkley’s 15 touchdowns came with a staggering average of 29.4 yards last year, and he didn’t have a single score from the 1-yard line (that’s tush push territory for Jalen Hurts).
Spin: Barkley enters his eighth season in the league, and he’s missed at least three games in four of those seasons. It’s a cinch he’ll lose some of last year’s touches, and the long touchdown rate isn’t going to repeat either. I understand it’s no fun to fade a player who just turned in the monster season Barkley had, but we need to skate to where the puck is headed, not where it’s been. In the first round, I’d prefer younger backs like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in front of Barkley.
RB James Cook, Bills
By the efficiency stats, Cook had a season similar to his career path last year — his YPC bumped up slightly, his success rate dipped slightly. His yards per reception and yards per target both fell, and he had 12 fewer catches than the previous season. But Cook landed as the RB8 because of how pure he ran with touchdowns — he spiked 18 times last year, after a modest six touchdowns in the previous season.
Spin: Cook is unhappy with his contract, a situation that will likely clear itself up before opening week — although it’s still worth mentioning. But it’s extremely doubtful Cook can match last year’s touchdown count, given that Buffalo has a mobile and athletic quarterback in Josh Allen and capable understudy backs in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. And while Cook is the obvious head of this backfield, he’s not really built to be a workhorse — he checks in at 190 pounds, and averages just under 16 touches per game over the past two seasons. Tread carefully here.
QB Jordan Love, Packers
Love tumbled from QB5 to QB17 last year, but that was mostly driven by volume. A slew of his key efficiency stats actually improved — Love had a better touchdown rate, a better sack-avoidance rate and a healthy jump in YPA. Two missed games contributed to his fantasy drop, though Love also slotted a modest QB18 in points per game.
Spin: The Packers ranked 16th in pass rate over expected back in 2023, but they slipped to 31st last year — perhaps because Love suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the season-opening loss in Brazil. The Yahoo market is giving you a QB16 sticker on Love this summer, which obviously presents a profit opportunity. It's unlikely the Packers will be this run-heavy again.
WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
It got late awfully early for Hill in 2024 — he didn’t have a single reception over 30 yards after Week 1. We saw a crash landing from Hill’s efficiency (his YPC fell by 3.3 yards) and volume (he lost 48 targets, 38 catches and seven touchdowns from the previous season). Hill also missed the Pro Bowl for the first time in his nine-year career.
Spin: Hill’s year-long slump had a lot of factors — Tua Tagovailoa dealt with concussion problems, and the Miami offensive line didn’t play well, which discouraged the team from calling deep pass plays. Unfortunately for Hill, Tagovailoa remains an injury risk, and the line still looks questionable. We also have to wonder about Hill’s commitment (at times it seems like he’s unhappy in Miami) and his level of skill (this is a 10-year vet heading into his age-31 season). Even with the market offering a discount on Hill, this is not a play I’m likely to make.
If you want to bet on a comeback in this passing game, focus on Jaylen Waddle.
TE Trey McBride, Cardinals
Some people are allergic to pollen, or bees or certain kinds of medication. McBride’s apparently holding a touchdown allergy. Despite 221 catches over three NFL seasons, he’s only caught six touchdown passes. It’s not for a lack of opportunity — McBride saw 21 red-zone targets last year, second-most among tight ends. But only one of those passes from in close went for a touchdown.
Spin: Perhaps the Cardinals will get more creative with McBride this year — consider he did have one touchdown run last season. But it’s possible his lack of scoring is directly tied to QB Kyler Murray, who’s undersized at the position and might struggle to see the field properly when things condense at the goal line. My reservations on Murray won’t allow me to label McBride a proactive pick, but I understand why some fantasy managers will target McBride, focusing on a high volume floor and the likelihood of positive touchdown regression.
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