The latest prediction from NOAA for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was sort of good.
And sort of bad.
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On the bright side, NOAA forecasters slightly dropped the number of storms expected this season.
But the season is still expected to be above normal. An average Atlantic hurricane season generates 14 named storms. NOAA predicted 13 to 18 named storms, with four already behind us but the busiest months of hurricane season ahead.
What is NOAA's updated prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
On Aug. 7, NOAA released an updated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecasters predicted:
Named storms: 13-18
Hurricanes: 5-9
Major hurricanes: 2-5
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How does NOAA's August prediction compare to May's hurricane season forecast?
In May, right before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA released its first prediction for the season. Here's the comparison with the forecast released Aug. 7:
Named storms
May: 13-19
August: 13-18
Hurricanes
May: 6-10
August: 5-9
Major hurricanes
May: 3-5
August: 2-5
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
May: 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
August: 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance for a below-normal season.
What is an 'average season' for Atlantic hurricanes?
From 1991 to 2020, the 30-year average for the Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
NOAA's prediction comes day after CSU report keeps Florida as No. 1 state at risk for hurricanes
Colorado State University forecasters updated their seasonal predictions Aug. 6, continuing to expect a slightly above-normal season, with 16 named storms and eight hurricanes
Florida continues to lead the United States when it comes to the chance of a named storm or hurricane tracking within 50 miles, CSU said. The August predictions were:
Probability of named storm tracking within 50 miles of Florida: 89%
Probability of hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Florida: 61%
Probability of major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Florida: 32%
Should we be concerned this hurricane season?
Mid-August through mid-October are the busiest months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and activity has been increasing.
Several other factors are expected to combine that should keep residents in hurricane-prone areas on their toes, NOAA said, including:
Warmer-than-average sea temperatures
Active West African monsoon, which help form tropical waves that move and evolve as the move across the Atlantic.
ENSO-neutral conditions, which means neither El Niño or La Niña will influence storm activity.
How many named storms have there been so far this year? Have any impacted Florida?
There have been four named storms so far this year.
One made landfall in the U.S. Tropical Storm Chantal brought high winds and deadly flooding to the Carolinas over the Fourth of July holiday.
Tropical Storms Andrea and Barry did not directly impact Florida or the U.S.
"No two storms are alike," said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
“Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”
Hurricane wind speeds and how they relate to categories
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale ranks hurricanes on a scale ranging from 1 to 5 based on maximum sustained winds. The scale does not factor in other hurricane hazards, such as storm surge, flooding or tornadoes, according to NOAA.
Category 1: 74-95 mph sustained winds will produce some damage.
Category 2: 96-110 mph sustained winds will cause extensive damage.
Category 3: 111-129 mph sustained winds will cause devastating damage. Is considered a major hurricane.
Category 4: 130-156 mph sustained winds will cause catastrophic damage. Is considered a major hurricane.
Category 5: Sustained winds over 157 mph will cause catastrophic damage. Is considered a major hurricane.
Buy hurricane supplies tax free in Florida
"As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued," said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.
Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching while shelves are full stocked and you aren't battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.
"It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community," the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. "Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint."
On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.
➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: NHC hurricane season updated prediction: 13-18 named storms
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