2025 Big 12 betting preview, odds: Favorite over/unders, Heisman pick and projections for every team

Another year, another wide-open Big 12.

If last season taught us anything, it’s that this league thrives on unpredictability. Arizona State, picked dead last in the preseason media poll, shocked everyone by winning the Big 12 title and nearly toppling Texas in the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, four teams finished with seven conference wins, and Iowa State, Colorado and BYU all stayed in the hunt until mid November.

Heading into 2025, don’t expect the chaos to slow down. This is a league built on parity, emerging quarterback talent and razor-thin margins. Every Saturday feels like a coin flip, but a few contenders — and some juicy betting angles — stand out.

Big 12 winner: Kansas State (+600 at BetMGM)

Kansas State looks like the team to beat in 2025.

Junior quarterback Avery Johnson, the dynamic dual-threat who flashed Heisman potential before injuries derailed his 2024 season, returns to lead an offense that can stretch the field vertically and stress defenses horizontally. The Wildcats’ receiving corps is loaded with size and speed, including multiple wideouts over 6-foot-4 and a track star tight end who once set the 110-meter hurdles record.

Combine that with a disciplined defense and one of the Big 12’s friendlier schedules, and Chris Klieman’s team has the makeup of a champion. If Johnson stays healthy, Kansas State isn’t just a conference favorite, it has a realistic path to the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Sleeper pick: BYU (20-1)

Don’t write off the Cougars just yet.

BYU’s offseason headlines centered around the loss of starting QB Jake Retzlaff under less-than-ideal circumstances, and the betting market has largely dismissed its 2025 chances. However, this roster is far from a rebuild.

The Cougars boast one of the Big 12’s top skill groups, with versatile playmakers in the flats and backs who can pick up tough yardage. A three-way quarterback battle in fall camp could actually be a blessing — competition tends to accelerate development, and BYU should find a functional starter quickly.

I project the Cougars at 8.05 wins, third most in the conference. At 20-1 odds, there’s sneaky value on BYU making noise in the title race.

Kansas under 7.5 wins (-158)

Projected wins: 6.37

The Jayhawks are once again fun on paper with Jalon Daniels back under center. But his availability is the elephant in the room. Daniels has elite flashes when healthy but has struggled to stay on the field, and the backup situation is thin — a major red flag for a team living on QB production.

Factor in a tricky schedule, and any Daniels injury could sink the season. At 7.5, the under is the safer play.

Colorado over 5.5 wins (-120)

Projected wins: 6.23

The Buffs’ offseason narrative was dominated by concerns over Deion Sanders’ health and the departures of stars Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. But I think the market may have overcorrected.

Colorado still has top-end talent and a friendlier schedule than last season. With the media circus dimmer and expectations reset, buying the dip at 5.5 wins is a sharp play.

Heisman value: Avery Johnson, QB, Kansas State (50-1)

Johnson flirted with Heisman buzz early last season, reaching odds as high as 20-1 before injuries stalled his campaign. His skill set is made for highlight reels: 4.5 speed, a 37-inch vertical and explosive dual-threat ability.

With a clean bill of health and new offensive coordinator Matt Wells dialing up tempo and spacing, Johnson is positioned to post video-game numbers. Kansas State opens with a nationally televised matchup against Iowa State — one or two early “wow” plays from Johnson and those 50-1 odds will vanish fast.

Conference overview

The Big 12 heads into 2025 with as many storylines as it has question marks. Kansas State has the headliner: Johnson, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback who sits near the top of early Heisman boards. Arizona State is itching to prove last year’s surge wasn’t a one-year wonder, while BYU enters the season with a new quarterback, and Texas Tech leans into its reputation as “the best team money can buy.”

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In Boulder, Year 1 without Hunter will test whether Colorado’s midseason buzz can survive without its star. And in Morgantown, West Virginia’s reunion with Rich Rodriguez could inject one of the nation’s fastest tempos into the league.

Top to bottom, the Big 12 might not have a playoff lock, but it does have chaos potential — and in this conference, that usually means an entertaining season is coming.