Tropical Storm Erin — the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season — is expected to begin strengthening soon and is likely to become a hurricane in the next 48 hours, according to the latest advisory Aug. 12 from the National Hurricane Center.
Erin is racing westward across the Atlantic at 22 mph and is forecast to become the season’s first hurricane — and likely to strengthen into a major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Here's what we know.
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How does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season compare to last year in Texas?
While the 2025 season may feel slow compared to last year — which was especially active with 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes — Erin is actually right on schedule for becoming a hurricane.
According to AccuWeather, the first hurricane usually forms around Aug. 11, the first major hurricane around Sept. 1, and the fifth named storm around Aug. 22 on average.
Erin’s formation comes as forecasters say the season is entering its most active stretch. Colorado State University meteorologists are maintaining their July forecast for a slightly above-average season: 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
For Texas, the season has been relatively quiet so far — a sharp contrast to mid-August last year, when the state was already six weeks past the final storm to impact the state, which saw the two earliest storms of the 2024 hurricane season.
In late June 2024, Tropical Storm Alberto threatened the Texas, and by early July, the Lone Star State was tracking one one of the hardest-hit hurricanes of the season — Hurricane Beryl, which became the earliest Category 5 storm on record before making its third landfall near Matagorda. After that, the remainder of the season was relatively mild for Texas, with no other storm threatening the state.
No storms have directly affected Texas this season, but forecasters warn the season is ramping up as it nears its peak months in August and September.
Will Tropical Storm Erin impact Texas?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
It’s too early to know if Erin will reach the United States at all, but the latest models suggest it’s significantly unlikely the storm will approach the Texas coastline based on its current path.
Still, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the U.S., "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.
Here's the latest update on Tropical Storm Erin.
Location: 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands; 1,890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Movement: west at 22 mph
Pressure: 1,004 mb
Where is Tropical Storm Erin headed? See projected path
Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The season peaks in August and September.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected].
(This story was updated with additional information.)
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Tropical Storm Erin likely to form as hurricane. Will it impact Texas?
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