Pete Buttigieg once had a ready answer about the U.S.-Israel relationship, likening it to a “friendship” in which you “try to guide them to a better place.” It's a line that used to go over well with the Pod Save America guys, who once clapped for and nodded along with it on stage back in 2019.
But this week they no longer did.
The politics of the Israel-Hamas conflict — and its center of gravity — have changed. And Democrats are searching for solid ground. Across the party’s still-inchoate 2028 presidential fieldfield, ambitious Democrats like Buttigieg are reevaluating their positions and staking out their territory.
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said his position is “evolving.” Governors like Wes Moore of Maryland and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, both staunch defenders of Israel, are keeping their powder dry and declining to engage on nuts and bolts policy questions. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who carried the nomination in 2024, did not comment for this story through a spokesperson.
“Democrats — like all Americans, but certainly Democrats — are sickened by what’s happening and trying to hold several things in mind at the same time, all of which can be true: that what has to happen next is the killing has to end," the former transportation secretary told POLITICO in an interview Wednesday. "The hostages have to come home. And the people of Gaza need aid unimpeded, and all of that should be happening immediately.”
It was a sharper response than his interview with Pod Save America host Jon Favreau — when he received swift blowback for a non-answer.
“When your friend kills 60,000 people and starves an entire population for months at a time, shouldn’t the question be: why the fuck am I friends with this guy?” said a Democratic strategist who was in the room with Buttigieg back in 2019 and whose positions have changed since then.
“I get it,” Buttigieg of the criticism of his Pod Save interview. “It's important to be clear about something this enormous and this painful. It's just that it's so enormous and it's so painful that sometimes words can fail.”
The response to Buttigieg, normally one of the Democratic Party’s most skilled communicators, was telling. Democrats have recalibrated on Israel, and that's already reverberating across the shadow campaign trail as the U.S. relationship with Israel is fast becoming a key litmus test ahead of the 2028 Democratic primary. The Democratic National Committee is weighing two different resolutions on the matter, with progressives pushing for elected Democrats to endorse an arms embargo on Israel and recognize a Palestinian state.
Buttigieg said he would have signed on to Sen. Bernie Sanders' proposed arms embargo against Israel, would recognize Palestine as part of a two-state solution, and thought the U.S. should not pass another 10-year agreement between the U.S. and Israel on foreign military aid carte blanche.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif), who hit Buttigieg's original answer on Pod Save America, said in an interview that “it’s going to be a defining issue in the Democratic Party in the midterms and for 2028.”
“Israel is not acting like an ally now, defying our Presidents, violating our values, and compromising our interests in the Middle East," said Khanna, who is calling for the U.S. to recognize a Palestinian state and arguing America should stop sending weapons that kill civilians to Israel.
Israel emerges as an early litmus test for 2028
It's already shaping how future presidential candidates are thinking about running.
“One of the lessons from 2024 was — steadfastly standing by Israel, no qualifications, was not an acceptable position, so Democrats are reading the room correctly,” said one adviser to a potential 2028 candidate.
But the adviser argued, beyond helping “separate the truly progressive candidates from less progressive candidates," it’s unclear how defining an issue Israel will be in the 2028 presidential race.
Groups on both sides hope it will be.
Democratic Majority for Israel president Brian Romick said in a statement that “2028 is a long way off but one thing is clear: the US-Israel relationship has been strong for generations and we expect that Democrats running in 2028 who want to win the presidency not only get that but will stand strong with our ally.”
“There is no question that this is a challenging moment in the U.S-Israel relationship but despite these circumstances, we know our party's support for Israel is strong," he added.
Pro-Palestinian group IMEU Policy Project, meanwhile, said it is planning television ad buys in early primary voting states targeting any would-be presidential hopefuls who won’t commit to restricting weapons to Israel.
“As Israel starves children and targets journalists in Gaza, the overwhelming majority of Democratic voters are clear that they support cutting off weapons to Israel," IMEU Policy Project Executive Director Margaret DeReus said in a statement. "It is absurd that so many figures who are reportedly hoping to lead the Democratic Party as its next presidential nominee are still on the opposite side of their own voters on this crucial question.”
The group has already targeted Gallego, running an ad last week during his visit to Iowa that called him out for skipping votes on resolutions to bar weapons sales to Israel.
Gallego’s office initially told POLITICO he missed the vote because he has been on paternity leave and would have voted to continue selling weapons to Israel. But he later said Israel’s plan to occupy Gaza City warrants a “review” of how the U.S. provides aid to Israel and that “I do think that we have to condition our aid on Israel and the use of weapons.”
“My position,” he said at a town hall, “has always kind of been evolving with the situation.”
For Buttigieg, the father of 4-year-old twins, he said the images out of Gaza have made the issue less an academic exercise and now a more visceral one.
“For anybody, looking at images of children starving and suffering and dying is horrifying, but I do think it's different when you're a parent. I think as a parent, you see these awful images of starving children with their ribs showing and automatically, you imagine your own kids.”
Bernie Sanders’ proposed arms sales ban becomes a Dem inflection point
The demand for humanitarian aid to Gaza helped convince some senators to back a ban on weapons sales to Israel. That resolution was supported by a majority of the Senate Democratic Caucus, including drawing 12 new supporters who had previously voted against the idea.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who ran for president in 2020, also joined Sanders’ resolutions, a notable shift for the moderate senator. In a statement, she said, in part, “I’ve supported military assistance to Israel in the past … But I believe at this moment in time it’s crucial that the Israeli government must do more to alleviate the urgent humanitarian crisis.”
“Feckless Democrats have turned on Israel over the Gaza war,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) texted POLITICO after voting against the resolution. “I only blame Hamas and Iran for this tragedy. I’m the Democrat that’s unapologetically all-in with Israel.”
He remains one of the most pro-Israel voices in his party, even as many other Democrats have become more critical.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a moderate, did not vote on the resolution, though his office said the Arizona senator would have also opposed it if he were in town.
Democratic governors, some of whom are running for reelection next year, are somewhat more insulated from issue-defining votes, but they’re still getting asked about it by voters. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz acknowledged during town halls this spring that the 2024 campaign fell short in recognizing voters’ anger over Gaza, adding “it needs to be spoken that there’s the angst over Gaza and things that needed to be addressed.” He said this month he expects the conflict in Israel to “still be an issue” for 2028.
Moore, who has previously offered a full-throated defense of Israel's right to defend itself, declined to comment. Shapiro, a pro-Israel moderate who has been critical of Netanyahu, doubled down on his condemnation of the prime minster last week, saying that his rhetoric and alliance with President Donald Trump have left the nation increasingly isolated.
“It is awful what is happening in Gaza, and we all have a responsibility to be there for those children,” he told reporters. “I thought it was also quite abhorrent what Prime Minister Netanyahu said roughly a week or so ago when he said there is no starvation in Gaza. He is wrong.”
A spokesperson for Shapiro declined to comment on his position on Sanders’ resolution.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who recently made a trip to the early state of South Carolina, said in a statement to POLITICO that “Trump should insist that the United States, with Israel’s cooperation, provide food assistance to the people and children suffering and starving in Gaza. Such basic humanitarian aid must be provided, while Israel ensures its ability to defend itself.” A spokesperson declined to comment on Beshear’s position on Sanders’ resolution.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker endorsed humanitarian aid to Palestinians without directly addressing the policy questions surrounding military aid.
"The purpose of the resolution seems to have been to send a message that Israel needs to deliver food aid to people who are starving in Gaza, and I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment," said Pritzker. "I'm all for us making sure that the Israelis work with us and [the] international community to deliver food to people who need it.”
Buttigieg sees a larger paradigm shift on the issue. Following the blowback this week to his response on the podcast, Buttigieg is now trying to directly answer Democrats’ questions about his positions on Israel.
Asked whether a Palestinian state should be recognized, Buttigieg told POLITICO a two-state solution “has to come in the context of a credible and enforceable and negotiated process. I think that if you just try to do it unilaterally, it's not going to change anything for people on the ground, and it'll just be words on a page.”
As for passing more decade-long military aid MOU packages, Buttigieg said “we have to shift to
a more case by case approach, instead of a blanket approach.”
And, he added, Netanhayu's military campaign is “even more horrifying when you contemplate that this is happening with U.S. support."
Lisa Kashinsky, Brakkton Booker, Shia Kapos and Melanie Mason contributed to this report.
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