LOS ANGELES — Gavin Newsom and California’s political powers are all-in on the Great Blue Gerrymander.
The Democratic state’s leading politicians and its most prominent labor unions put on a show of unity on Thursday as they gathered to launch a campaign for a new House map that, if voters approve it, would help oust a half-dozen California Republicans.
The event telegraphed how thoroughly Democrats and their allies have coalesced behind a blue-state gerrymandering push — and the extent to which California, by embracing that effort, now stands at the forefront of combatting President Donald Trump’s agenda.
“We can’t stand back and watch this democracy disappear, district by district, all across this country,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said. “We need to stand up. Not just California: Other states need to stand up.”
The themes of that likely special election came into focus on Friday: Rally attendees spoke at a podium emblazoned with an "Election Rigging Response Act” sign and held “defend democracy” placards. Details also emerged about the campaign’s backers. A newly unveiled campaign website lists House Democrats’ principal super PAC and Democratic megadonor Bill Bloomfield as initial funders.
Multiple speakers condemned the immigration raids Trump has unleashed on Los Angeles — among them SEIU California President David Huerta, who was detained during a protest and choked up when he described the raids — as U.S. Border Patrol agents gathered outside.
“We were told (Trump) wanted to make us more safe, that he wanted to deport criminals,” said California Labor Federation leader Lorena Gonzalez, “and instead he's been deporting and targeting workers and grandmothers and children and dreamers.”
Trump spurred a national redistricting battle by pushing Texas Republicans to shore up the GOP’s slender House majority with a new state map. Newsom responded by vowing to neutralize GOP gains in Texas with a California gerrymander, enthusiastically pursuing a tactic the Democratic Party has urged in New York and other blue states. Democrats argue Trump is trying to subvert the election because he knows his policies, like tariffs and legislation that slashes health care spending, would otherwise drag down Republicans' prospects.
“In normal times a political party in power would be proud of their accomplishments and they’d be running on their record," Sen. Alex Padilla said. “They know they’re not just unpopular, they’re wrong, and the only hope they have of keeping power next November is to rig the system.”
California Democrats have raced to draw a new map that could push a half-dozen Republicans out of office. Democrats who wield supermajorities in the state Legislature are expected to vote next week to put the new lines to voters during a Nov. 4 special election.
But victory at the ballot box is far from assured.
Newsom’s pollster has circulated an internal survey showing the measure starting with only a narrow majority, and polling from POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab found voters overwhelmingly support keeping the state’s independent redistricting commission. (The nascent ballot measure would leave the commission in place but effectively override its work by creating new maps to boost Democrats through 2030.)
Democrats argue their message of rebuking Trump will resonate with voters and prove more powerful than their qualms about overhauling the state’s rules.
“Californians believe in fair maps,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar, who has been deeply involved in the effort as California's senior House Democrat, “but if Texas and other red states want to move forward with their partisan power grab to rig the elections, we cannot sit on the sidelines.”
It will likely be an enormously expensive fight. There are no contribution limits for ballot initiatives, and a highly partisan, off-year brawl centering on Trump and Republican power could draw in national donors — both Democrats itching to stymie Trump and Republicans eager to rebuke Newsom and Democratic leaders.
And while organized labor and wealthy Democratic donors are positioned to fight for the ballot initiative, it will likely draw opposition from former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed independent redistricting as governor, and Charles Munger, who in 2010 spent more than $10 million to strip California lawmakers of their power to draw House lines.
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