We weren’t showing off nor falling behind during a 2-1 Week 0, as we executed the axiom “you can’t go broke making a profit.” Thus, we’re back for a second edition of “Movers and Shakers” – where we look back at who made a move and who shook up the college football world last week, before breaking down the betting market for the biggest games in the coming week.
Movers
The season kicked off in Ireland where the weather either caused or mirrored a sloppy game that, if it were within the rules, probably deserved to end without a winner. Iowa State outlasted Kansas State, and the under was the right side the whole way.
Don’t tell that last part to those with Over 51.5 wagers, who thought they cashed a ticket on a late touchdown, only for a review to overturn the score and three kneels followed. The first of many bad beats this college football season.
The Cyclones get the leg up in a Big 12 conference that somehow has more than a dozen contenders, but we’ll need to see more before being sure that either team is any good.
Shakers
Group of Five darkhorse UNLV almost shook itself out of College Football Playoff contention, as the Rebels found themselves in a battle with Idaho State of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). Meanwhile, Hawaii’s win over Stanford was a bigger deal by branding than in the market, where the Warriors had been bet favorites over the summer.
Best bets for Week 1’s big games
The bar for what is a big game in college football changes week-to-week. In Week 0, we were happy to take anything we could get. A week later, the bar goes to a level that it might not reach for the rest of the season, since almost all the teams with title hopes are playing, and television execs have coaxed many into playing each other for big money.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State (-1.5, 47.5)
There will be no babies out with the bath water for the loser of the first “No. 1 at defending champion” season-opening game in college football history, but the winner gets a major positive data point on their resume.
We’ve already seen that Ryan Day can rally a talented group from their worst moment to their best in short order, so if Ohio State can lose the season finale and still win the title, dropping the opener to AP’s No. 1 team won’t be a killer.
The Longhorns lost 12 players to the NFL, while the Buckeyes lost 14, but neither side has had to overdo it in the transfer portal. Where change could be most obvious is via the playcallers.
Continuity continues in Austin with both playcallers, as Pete Kwiatkowski has been defensive coordinator since 2021, and Steve Sarkisian has an even more talented quarterback to work with (Arch Manning) than the experienced Quinn Ewers.
Ohio State is going from Jim Knowles to Matt Patricia (yes, he’s back), and from Chip Kelly to Brian Hartline (who was demoted from offensive coordinator when Day hired Kelly before last season).
To put it simply, a victory for redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, in his debut over the revenge-seeking Longhorns, would be more impressive than Arch Manning doing just enough with his arm and legs to win in Columbus. Especially since home-field advantage is relatively minimal in late August, compared to say, December — when these two might very well meet again.
This line is on the move, so shop around to find the best number.
Pick: Texas +2
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson (-4, 57.5)
Maybe Brian Kelly’s crazy like a fox.
LSU’s 0-for-3 in these Week 1 showdowns under Kelly (losing to Florida State twice plus USC last year). So, instead of easing down the throttle for 2025, LSU’s cranked it up a notch, putting the “Death Valley” title on the line like it’s a virtual ladder match.
When it comes to point spread calculus, I think both Death Valleys are equally awesome when it comes to giving the home team an advantage, with both being worth four points. If that’s a fair estimate, then a 4-point line here rates LSU and Clemson on the same level, but I can’t quite get there without seeing it first.
With two of the three Heisman favorites squaring off in this one – Cade Klubnik for Clemson and Garrett Nussmeier for LSU – there’s likely no advantage at the quarterback position, but Clemson’s returning the vast majority of a team that won the ACC and battled with Texas in the CFP. Plus, Dabo Swinney even dipped his toe into the transfer portal.
We enter another season of LSU having a lot to prove, and (slams fist on table) they keep coming up short, not just in the first game of the season, but overall.
While four points may feel like a lot in a top-10 matchup that could go either way, it’s easier to make a case that Clemson’s rating in the market should be higher than it is to do the same for LSU.
Pick: Clemson -4
Virginia Tech at No. 13 South Carolina (-8, 50.5)
It’s a newly-created, old-fashioned Week 1 neutral-site standalone game on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta, pitting old rivals who haven’t played in 33 years. The Hokies will come from six hours away in Blacksburg, and the Gamecocks drive three hours from Columbia. While the colors are similar, the offseason buzz for each team isn’t.
Actually, the hype around South Carolina – a team Netflix reminded us could have easily been selected to the CFP last year – is somewhat reminiscent to the guarded optimism around Virginia Tech one year ago.
Lined at 8.5 wins last summer, Virginia Tech came into the season being thought of as a team power rated 71 out of 100, which was not only better than a trio of eventual CFP teams, but also considerably higher than South Carolina (60 out of 100).
A year later, and the tables have turned, but has that much changed in a dozen games? The Hokies went 6-6 to the Gamecocks’ 9-3, but five of Tech’s losses came either in overtime or by four points or less.
The emergence of QB LaNorris Sellers has likely been the key contributor to USC’s rating, but Kyron Drones is just as capable of taking over a game – which is why many were so high on Virginia Tech before last season.
Ahead of schedule in 2024, the Gamecocks might still be the better team, but getting over a touchdown on a neutral field is too much to pass up for a Hokies team that might just be one year behind theirs.
Pick: Virginia Tech +8
No. 6 Notre Dame (-2.5, 49.5) at No. 10 Miami (FL)
In their early non-conference showdown last season, Marcus Freeman’s group went to College Station and beat Texas A&M on toughness alone. It’s the type of trait that’s beneficial on the road against teams with similar talent, and it’s how the Irish made it to the national title game in January.
Mario Cristobal would love for his teams to exhibit that type of physicality, but how many times do we have to see them fall short in games where they should be pushing their opponent around in the trenches?
Miami wasn’t the physically superior team when its undefeated season was ended by Georgia Tech (for a second year in a row) in 2024, but the Hurricanes should have overwhelmed Syracuse in the regular-season finale, only to see a CFP spot go up in flames.
Even with uncertainty about what the Irish will get from their quarterback, Freeman’s shown he can find victory in the margins (defense, special teams, game plan), and should take advantage of Cristobal when it comes to preparation for this big-time season opener.
Pick: Notre Dame -2.5
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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