Why are tropics so quiet? What Florida residents should know about hurricane outlook

Date:2025-08-28 00:19:58 Category:US Views:1 Comment:0

You can thank Hurricane Erin, partially, for the quiet in the tropics right now.

The lull falls in the middle of what historically are the most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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The peak of the season falls on Sept. 10, with the busiest period falling between mid-August and mid-October.

So why are the tropics quiet right now, and when can we expect to see the next tropical storm or hurricane?

Here's what you should know.

What's happening in the tropics right now?

As of early Wednesday, Aug. 27, the National Hurricane Center was tracking Tropical Storm Fernand and three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin.

➤ National Hurricane Center still tracking Tropical Storm Fernand, 3 tropical waves

Although conditions can change rapidly, as of 8 a.m. Aug. 27, the National Hurricane Center said no tropical development was expected over the next seven days.

Could Florida see a Labor Day tropical storm or hurricane?

AccuWeather hurricane experts said they are keeping an eye on a couple of areas — in the eastern Gulf and off the Southeast coast of the U.S. — they said show a low risk for tropical development Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, which is Labor Day.

"An unusually strong dip in the jet stream is forecast to move into the Southeast during the holiday weekend, potentially kicking off a rare mid-season homegrown storm," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email Aug. 26.

"Regardless of development, a wet pattern looks to be in place for the holiday weekend across portions of the Southeast.

Why are the tropics so quiet right now?

There are a few reasons for the quiet conditions in the tropics right now:

Dry and dusty air over the main development region of the Atlantic
Cooler water temperatures stirred up by Hurricane Erin
Vertical wind shear across portions of the tropical Atlantic

When will activity pick up in the tropics?

"Atmospheric conditions conducive to tropical development are forecast to return by the end of the first week of September, as cooler water temperatures rebound in the wake of Hurricane Erin," DaSilva said.

"The tropics could be quite active by mid-September."

The dry, dusty air is expected to clear out in early September.

"And sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are extremely warm. This is quite concerning. If a storm is able to get into the 'untouched' waters of the Gulf, it could rapidly intensify,” DaSilva said.

"The primary threat formation area for major hurricanes in late August is in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic," Colorado State University said in its two-week forecast for Aug. 20 through Sept. 2.

ECMWF, the European forecast, probability of tropical storm strike Sept. 1-8, 2025

ECMWF map showing existing and potential tropical cyclone activity predicted for Sept. 1-8, 2025.

ECMWF posts long-range forecast maps showing tropical storm probabilities.

On Aug. 27, two areas are highlighted for the period of Sept. 1 through 8.

ECMWF stands for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The organization is one of the leading global weather forecasting centers and produces global numerical weather predictions and other data.

Is it unusual to see the tropics quiet around Labor Day?

"It's possible that we do not have a named storm on Labor Day again this year. If so, that would make it two years in a row," DaSilva said.

"The last time that has happened — two years in a row of no named storm in the Atlantic Basin on Labor Day — was 1991 and 1992."

If storm gets into Gulf, 'watch out'

The tropics could be quite active by mid-September, DaSilva said.

"Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are extremely warm. This is quite concerning. If a storm is able to get into the 'untouched' waters of the Gulf, it could rapidly intensify.”