Porter leads crowded California governor race by 7 points; most voters undecided: Survey

Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter (Calif.) is leading the crowded California governor’s race, new polling shows, though most voters are undecided about who should succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

A new survey from the Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) at the University of California, Berkeley, found Porter was the first choice for 17 percent of California voters, ahead of Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco’s 10 percent and Democratic former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra’s 9 percent.

Each of nine other candidates on both sides of the aisle earned 6 percent or less. In California’s nonpartisan system, the top two candidates move on from the primary to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

But 38 percent of voters remain undecided in the race, more than twice the share that picked Porter.

“The findings show that there is no clear frontrunner at this early stage. This will mean that candidates will have to spend lots of time, and lots of money, working on name recognition and educating voters about their record of service,” IGS co-director G. Cristina Mora said in a release.

The poll comes after former Vice President Kamala Harris and state Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis decided against gubernatorial bids in recent weeks, making the race what Berkeley IGS Poll director Mark DiCamillo called “a wide-open affair.”

Harris, who was expected to clear the field if she entered the race, announced she would not run after giving the question “serious thought.”

In the wake of her 2024 presidential campaign, she said that her public service “for now … will not be in elected office,” though questions continue about whether she could run again for the White House in 2028.

Kounalakis dropped her gubernatorial bid earlier this month, pivoting instead to run for treasurer in the Golden State after lackluster fundraising numbers and polling.

Porter has appeared as a leading choice in Emerson polling earlier this month, followed by Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton.

When including second-choice preferences for the governor’s race, Porter’s support in the IGS poll climbs to 22 percent, followed by Becerra at 18 percent, Bianco at 15 percent and Hilton at 12 percent — but 38 percent remain undecided.

Still more candidates could get into the race. Republican-turned-Democrat Rick Caruso has been named in chatter, as has Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.).

Given California’s nonpartisan system, it’s possible that two Democrats could advance from the primary to the general in an intraparty fight, or the race could see a more classic Democrat-on-Republican contest.

The last time a Republican won California’s governorship was 2006, when former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger scored reelection. And though Trump made inroads in California in November, the state has gone blue in the presidential race every cycle since 1992.

The Berkeley IGS Poll was taken Aug. 11-17 among 4,950 California voters. The poll notes that the survey’s sampling error is difficult to precisely calculate due to sample stratification and other factors, but is likely at 2 percentage points.

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