The United States Environmental Protection Agency will be effectively canceling its legal authority to limit carbon emissions from the automotive industry, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced Tuesday. Zeldin said that he is officially planning to a key 2009 declaration that asserted that greenhouse gas emissions pose a threat to public health and legally authorized the agency to regulate them. If finalized, this would erase the set limits on emissions from passenger cars and trucks, potentially alter the entire new car industry, and mark a huge shift for the aftermarket.
Zeldin teased the news while being interviewed on the Ruthless podcast, and later delivered a statement at an Indianapolis truck dealer. He said that it could “amount to the largest deregulatory action in the history of the United States.” It’s hard to argue that.
“With this proposal, the Trump EPA is proposing to end 16 years of uncertainty for automakers and American consumers,” Zeldin said. “In our work so far, many stakeholders have told me that the Obama and Biden EPAs twisted the law, ignored precedent, and warped science to achieve their preferred ends and stick American families with hundreds of billions of dollars in hidden taxes every single year. We heard loud and clear the concern that EPA’s GHG emissions standards themselves, not carbon dioxide which the Finding never assessed independently, was the real threat to Americans’ livelihoods. If finalized, rescinding the Endangerment Finding and resulting regulations would end $1 trillion or more in hidden taxes on American businesses and families.”
I reached out to the Specialty Equipment Manufacturers Association, or SEMA, for comment on the EPA’s plan. By and large, it’s pretty thrilled. That’s not surprising since some of the companies SEMA represents have had their fair share of conflict regarding government enforcement of the Clean Air Act, and it’s vocally opposed electric vehicle production mandates that stem from emissions targets set by the EPA.
“For years, we’ve witnessed firsthand the damage inflicted by the so-called ‘endangerment’ finding of 2009, including its brazen use by the EPA under previous administrations and by California to mandate the sale of electric vehicles (EVs) and ban the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles,” a statement from SEMA reads. “ICE vehicles remain the bedrock upon which the American people—families, small businesses, and automotive enthusiasts—rely to live their best, most prosperous lives, and to ban them is an affront to the American way of life.
“SEMA thanks Administrator Zeldin and the Trump Administration for pursuing common-sense reforms that prioritize the American people and our nation’s economy. This announcement marks a significant policy shift that preserves vehicle choice and strikes a blow to the coordinated, nationwide efforts of unelected activist policymakers and environmental groups to dictate the kinds of vehicles Americans can drive.”
I also contacted the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents automakers like BMW, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, Volkswagen, and more. The organization’s president and CEO John Bozzella had the following to say:
“We’re reviewing today’s announcement covering the endangerment finding to understand what it means for U.S. vehicle emissions rules going forward. At the same time, there’s no question the vehicle emissions regulations finalized under the previous administration aren’t achievable and should be revised to reflect current market conditions, to keep the auto industry in America competitive, and to keep the industry on a path of vehicle choice and lower emissions.”
If you’ve been paying attention, “vehicle choice” or “customer choice” has become the industry’s preferred euphemism for “We want to keep making gas-powered cars because that’s what sells and we’re losing our shirts on EVs.” While I don’t doubt that at least some of the folks running major automakers truly believe they need to develop all-electric lineups for the good of the planet, these are massive corporations. The only way they’re going to choose a money-losing path, like spending billions for decade to figure out affordable EVs or a real fast-charging network, is if they’re forced to. And the American market is still incredibly important to all the big ones, especially as China’s market favors its own products and their global EV efforts are taking sales from everyone everywhere else.
One interesting possibility: what if this brings a surge in hybrid powertrains, as companies redirect electrification resources and know-how into a technology many consumers want and makes them money? That feels more likely than a parade of new naturally-aspirated V8 models, honestly. And given the fact that a different administration could change course again in just four years, that timeline isn’t enough for automakers to make long-term changes. Probably the most immediate impact is that we’ll see some cars that were scheduled to end production soon get their lives extended.
Either way, if the EPA is really telling automakers it can do whatever it wants, even for a little while, this is going to get weird.
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