These are bad times for Americans in general and Democrats in particular. Will California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) be the presidential candidate who rides to their rescue? Will Make America Gavin Again become an effective antidote to Make America Great Again, or will it simply be a harmless placebo?
Only time will tell. But Newsom is off to an impressive start.
Struggling working families are overwhelmed by increases in the cost of living and the government resources that would aid Americans during a recession have been decimated by President Trump and his MAGA majorities in the House and the Senate.
Unfettered by an effective opposition and unbothered by constitutional restraints, Trump has exposed his authoritarian excesses. He has already used military force to take over Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement officers even showed up near Newsom’s announcement of his initiative to redraw California’s congressional districts. Trump has threatened to deploy the National Guard to Chicago, another city with a Democratic mayor and a large minority population.
Sadly, Democrats aren’t sufficiently well positioned to stop Trump’s excesses. My party’s popularity registered at its lowest point in the last 35 years in a national poll last month by The Wall Street Journal. The New York Times reported that Democrats had lost 2.1 million registered voters and the Republicans gained 2.4 million between the last two presidential elections in the 30 states and the District of Columbia which allow party registration.
A fragile Democratic coalition might be able to turn Trump’s reckless handling of the economy into a midterm victory. But it will take a major overhaul, new leadership and a fresh brand to win the White House in 2028.
Newsom’s fight to create additional congressional districts for his party, along with his aggressive social media campaign, have captured the imagination of party activists as they desperately scan the horizon for a headliner who can take the fight to Trump and his MAGA acolytes.
Newsom presents an impressive resume, with experience as mayor of San Francisco and as two-term governor of the nation’s largest state. But he will face off in 2028 against other contenders with impressive resumes including a former U.S. senator and vice president from his own state.
He needed and found a distinctive way to separate himself from the rest of the pack. He has demonstrated that he’s as much a showman and as aggressive as Trump, established himself as the media focal point of the MAGA opposition and as a one-on-one competitor against the unpopular president. The other Democratic contenders must weigh in soon if they hope to compete.
Texas has passed a mid-decade redistricting plan that could cripple House Democrats. This put the ball in Newsom’s court, and he ran with it immediately. Days after the Texas Legislature had approved its plan, California’s Legislature created a new map that will greatly advantage Democrats if voters approve it in November. Other Democratic governors, including another White House hopeful JB Pritzker of Illinois jumped on Newsom’s initiative and indicated they might try to redistrict as well.
Newsom’s social media campaign demonstrates that he can take a punch and fight back with the best of them in a forum that Trump and MAGA have traditionally owned.
Will California dreaming become a reality for the governor? The Golden State is the richest delegate prize in the national Democratic contest. It will be a make-or-break moment for Newsom.
A new poll of California Democrats has Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris out ahead of the pack in their shared home state. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are the only other hopefuls who register in double digits. If one of the Californians decisively wins their home state’s primary, that could knock the other two out of the race. If Buttigieg or AOC wins in California, that could knock both natives out of the race.
Even if he wins the redistricting battle at home, Newsom faces problems in his quest for the Democratic nod.
Many Democrats would prefer a nominee from the Midwestern battleground states, where they make cars, over a candidate from the coast, where they traditionally make movies. Newsom could face governors from America’s industrial heartland, such as Josh Shapiro (D) of Pennsylvania or Gretchen Whitmer (D) of Michigan, in the fight for the Democratic ticket to the White House.
Then there’s ideology. Newsom is a liberal pragmatist, not an aggressive progressive. He takes what he can get rather than reaching for the stars. His caution will endear him to moderate Democrats but, it is a red flag to the Bernie Sanders wing of the party, a strong internal force even with the Vermont senator out of the race. What’s more, Newsom’s state faces a budget shortfall that has already forced the governor to make painful budget cuts that have angered fellow Democrats.
AOC or Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) could undermine Newsom’s standing in his home state by waging a campaign staked on Sanders’s progressive proposals. That’s a hill that many Democrats are willing to die on.
Newsom possesses an aggressive gene that the Democratic DNA desperately needs in its struggle to evolve. Democrats are searching for a leader who will turn their fortunes around. That person must be the party’s next nominee for president.
Newsom has recently raised his profile in the prelude to the 2028 Democratic nomination fight. It will take a while to determine whether his newfound social media profile is just fluff that will disappear in the fickle electronic winds of the ethernet. But visibility is vital for success in what looks to be a big field of contestants in the competitive race for the Democratic presidential nomination that is already off and running.
Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
Comments