KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A redistricting debate may soon be happening in Missouri — and specifically, the 5th Congressional District could be in the crosshairs of a redistricting effort that some believe could reshape the state’s political landscape.
The news emerges as a redistricting battle in Texas grabs national headlines, with Democratic lawmakers there taking extraordinary steps to halt a GOP-led effort to redraw congressional maps.
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Now, political watchers say Missouri may be next.
At the center of this potential shakeup is Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver II, who has represented Missouri’s 5th District since 2005.
The district includes Kansas City and surrounding areas and is known for its diverse population and political leanings that have historically favored Democrats.
Yet some Republicans appear eager to test that.
Currently, Missouri’s congressional delegation leans heavily Republican — with six GOP representatives and just two Democrats.
But as the Missouri Legislature prepares to return to Jefferson City for the annual veto session in just over a month, the redistricting debate could take center stage.
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“They’re cities with multicultural, multiracial, multiallelic – kinds of populations where people are more inclined to be together – a mix of urban and rural,” Cleaver said, describing the nature of his district and why it could be a target.
While much of the redistricting pressure appears to be coming from the national level — reports indicate this move is being led by the White House and President Donald Trump — Missouri officials are not resisting. They’re jumping on board.
In fact, Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe expressed his support for the effort in an interview with our St. Louis affiliate. His office followed up with this statement:
“Governor Kehoe and his team are aware of the redistricting efforts in Texas and the calls for a special session in Missouri. Discussions are always being held to ensure that conservative Missouri values are represented in Washington.”
Cleaver, however, is not backing down.
“I don’t lay down quite well – I grew up in public housing – it’s kind of difficult for somebody to run over me with the assumption that I’m going to lay down and play road for them,” he said.
Veteran journalist and political analyst Dave Helling, who has covered Missouri politics for four decades — including time at FOX4 — said this isn’t the first time Missouri’s 5th District has been a target.
“Emanuel Cleaver is relatively popular even with some moderate Republicans, he won comfortably the last time, he’s never been really seriously challenged for his seat,” Helling said.
Past attempts to reshape Cleaver’s district have failed, and whether this effort succeeds could depend on how the situation in Texas plays out.
“Rather the legislators and Governor Mike Kehoe have the stomach to go through all of this for one potential seat in the U.S. House is an interesting question,” Helling said.
Helling also says this strategy could backfire on those making the effort because you’d be taking deep-red districts and shoving them into toss-up territory.
And even if the effort succeeds, the national impact may be limited.
Helling points out that in midterm election years, the party in power typically loses around 20 seats in the House — meaning one seat in Missouri, and even five in Texas, may not tip the balance.
FOX4 reached out to more than half a dozen Republicans in power across the state.
Republican State Senate President Cindy O’Laughlin released the following statement:
“There’s been speculation about a potential special session on redistricting, but no decision has been made at this time. That responsibility lies with Governor Kehoe, and I support him in whatever path he believes is best for the state.
My priority is ensuring Missouri’s representation in Washington reflects the values of our conservative majority at home. As national Democrats continue to embrace extreme policies, we must remain vigilant and do what we can to keep socialists from gaining more control. If the Governor calls a special session, the Senate will be ready to engage in those discussions.”
There’s also the risk of political retaliation. If red states like Missouri and Texas succeed in redrawing their maps, states like California and New York have promised to join this redistricting party — but on the other side.
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So, what are the chances Missouri moves forward?
Helling said he’s been wrong before, and with the amount of influence Trump has over the Republican Party, it’s hard to say. But right now, he doesn’t think this will happen.
One thing’s clear: As the political temperature rises in states like Texas, Missouri may not be far behind in what could become a coast-to-coast fight over congressional power.
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