I’ve been sports betting for 15 years now, and I can’t remember the last time I watched a game without knowing what the odds were. After being around the industry so long, I’ve developed a strong sense not only of how markets move and evolve, but also which betting markets are established and which are relatively new.
One market that’s gained traction recently is the simple yes/no bet on whether an NFL team will make the playoffs. While this was occasionally available in the past, it’s now widely offered for all teams, posted months in advance and often still available well into the season.
I find this market particularly exploitable. There are consistent angles to target: weak divisions, unbalanced schedules and asymmetric injury situations. Sure, these factors are all priced into the odds, but the key is identifying where the market is over- or under-weight for certain teams.
Here are three NFL playoff futures bets I think are worth placing right now:
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs (-180 at BetMGM)
The 49ers enter this season with the easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponent projected win totals. After finishing last in their division, they draw a schedule with a 41.5% opponent win percentage last season. They were hit hard by the injury bug last year and will be hoping for better health this season. The run defense was abysmal, ranking in the bottom five of the league, but this year they addressed it by drafting elite defensive line prospect Mykal Williams in the first round and bringing back Robert Saleh as their defensive coordinator. Despite ranking 29th in points allowed last season, they were No. 2 in yards per game allowed. The latter is a larger indicator of what's likely to happen moving forward.
The offense has continued to be plug-and-play throughout the Kyle Shanahan era, and I expect QB Brock Purdy to stay healthy, thanks to a strong offensive line and a play style that limits exposure to big hits.
The reason I prefer this angle over betting the division for San Francisco is because, while the division is strong, the conference is relatively weak. It would not be surprising to see three of the four teams in the NFC West make the playoffs. Meanwhile, all eight teams in the NFC East and NFC North face tougher-than-average schedules, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
Chicago Bears to miss the playoffs (-190)
The Bears have the seventh-hardest projected schedule in the NFL, including six games against an incredibly tough NFC North, and they have a new head coach along with a second-year quarterback. All of these factors make this team a clear fade for me. However, the fundamental flaw in my eyes is the Bears’ team identity compared with their playing conditions.
This team is trying to play with pace and space, loading up on weapons to surround Caleb Williams. Football is won in the trenches, especially in cold and windy Chicago. There is a reason no Bears quarterback has ever thrown for 4,000 yards in a single season: home conditions often deter those types of performances. The next great Bears team will have an elite defense and a strong running game; this is not it.
The Bears ranked 22nd in TD conversion rate last season, and I am skeptical the new coaching staff will vastly improve that metric; scoring TDs on 51.4% of drives into the red zone and then settling for field goals in tough conditions is not a recipe for success. Fade the Bears this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs (+165)
Jacksonville is a sneaky team worth attacking in several ways this offseason. It has the potential to be a breakout team that could earn a playoff berth and some award nominations such as Liam Coen for Coach of the Year, Travis Hunter for Rookie of the Year, or even a Trevor Lawrence MVP long shot. I want to play the Jaguars in various plus-odds ways.
The AFC South is the weakest division in the conference. The Colts still have not named a starting quarterback — and the choices are Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. The Titans have a rookie quarterback and a second-year head coach. The Texans face under-discussed issues with a problematic offensive line, not to mention Joe Mixon's foot injury.
Lawrence has breakout WR Brian Thomas Jr., who had 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, and the threat of Heisman winner Hunter, whom the Jaguars traded up to No. 2 to get in the 2025 NFL Draft. Finally, with the dual threats at RB between Tank Bigsby (nearly 800 rushing yards and 7 TDs) and Travis Etienne, the depth of talent and diversity of play calls should vastly improve on offense.
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