Top experts from Colorado State University released their final planned forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season on Aug. 6, including a state-by-state look at upcoming hurricane risk.
Overall, the outlook maintains a prediction of a slightly above-average season of 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. A major hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
A "normal" year sees 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes.
"We're keeping the forecast the same as what we predicted in early July" (16 named storms of which 8 become hurricanes), Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY. This includes the four storms that have already formed.
The news comes as August brings a pivot point in hurricane season and increased tropical activity in the Atlantic.
Tropical Atlantic is now warm enough for hurricanes
According to the updated forecast, the tropical Atlantic has warmed faster than normal over the past few weeks. "When the waters in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea are warmer than normal, it tends to favor an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation," the forecast said.
"Water temperatures are pretty much warm enough everywhere in the tropical Atlantic to support hurricane formation," Klotzbach told USA TODAY.
In addition, the Colorado State team anticipates "a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season."
Hurricane risk by state
The updated forecast includes a state-by-state look at hurricane risk. Those calculations predict the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state.
Per usual, the highest risk is in Florida, which faces an 89% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm and a 61% chance of being impacted by a hurricane.
Will your state be impacted by a hurricane? Here's what to know about the risk in 2025, according to the new outlook:
Will a hurricane impact Louisiana in 2025?
In Louisiana, there is a 71% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance. There is also a 16% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Louisiana.
More: Hurricane season hotspot spawns new threat for Carolinas
Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in 2025?
Colorado State researchers said there's a 48% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.
The chances for a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (31%) than they are along the East Coast (25%).
(This story has been updated to add new information).
This article originally appeared on Shreveport Times: Last Colorado State hurricane season outlook lists danger by state
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