More than 50 years ago, Archie Manning, then a junior at Ole Miss, knocked the college football world sideways. On an October evening in 1969, Manning strode into Birmingham, Alabama, and proceeded to throw for 436 yards and two touchdowns and rush for three more against Bear Bryant and mighty Alabama. Ole Miss lost by a point, but delivered an unmistakable message.
This week, Archie Manning, now the patriarch of the nation’s finest quarterback dynasty, knocked the college football world sideways again … and this time, for good measure, he put the NFL’s bottom-feeders on skates, too.
In an interview with Texas Monthly for a feature focusing on his grandson Arch, the elder Manning delivered a sledgehammer declaration about the potential for Arch to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft after this college football season: “Arch isn’t going to do that. He’ll be at Texas.”
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That sound you just heard was Texas exploding in celebration … and New Orleans deflating in despair.
Before we go any further, some stipulations: Arch Manning, now entering his third season in Austin, has thrown fewer than 100 college passes for fewer than 1,000 total yards. For all the hype that swirls around Manning — whether because of his Heisman-frontrunner status, the playoff-worthy program around him, or his famous surname — he’s still very much an unknown quantity.
That hasn’t stopped frothing fans and media from tabbing Manning and the Longhorns as preseason favorites to win the SEC and challenge for the national championship. It’s the natural result of a college football season with no clear favorite, a rejuvenated fanbase that finally has the talent to justify its perpetual arrogance, and a quarterback with Lombardi trophies in his bloodline.
With its bottomless war chest and a cinematic, Steve Sarkisian-crafted identity, Texas has now elbowed its way to the top rungs of the college football hierarchy. Considering how quickly portal-inspired turnover can happen and champions can tumble right out of the playoffs — see: Michigan and Alabama — having a sure thing under center for two years is as close as college football gets to a sure bet.
Plus, there are Sundays to consider. Manning’s unique blend of arm talent, potential, hype and lineage has already sent NFL front offices buzzing. Think New Orleans would like another Manning to suit up for them once again, 55 years after his grandfather did? Think Cleveland would like to sign a quarterback whose off-field drama is actually good news? Think the Rams would like a succession plan after Matthew Stafford, or the Colts would like a Plan B, or … you get the idea. Any potential “Awful for Arch” campaign would be almost certainly doomed for a range of reasons … but you know that there are flailing NFL GMs out there who are wondering if a run at getting a Manning on the roster would buy them an extra year or two of employment.
All of these factors combine to make Arch Manning’s decision to turn pro one of the most consequential questions in recent football history. It’s true that one player doesn’t make a football team, but it’s also true that quarterbacks, especially elite quarterbacks, aren’t just another player.
The wise long-term move would be for Arch to follow his grandfather’s declaration and stay in the draft for another year. Money — while probably not an issue anyway for a Manning — is still flowing into his accounts thanks to NIL deals. Both of his famous uncles stayed in school all four years, Peyton at Tennessee and Eli at Ole Miss, both finished high in Heisman voting, both were picked No. 1 in their respective drafts and both went on to earn a quarter billion as pros. The NFL’s not going anywhere, and another year of seasoning under Sarkisian could only help Arch Manning’s long-term football prospects.
Now, if Arch balls out this season, ascends to his final collegiate form, and wins a national championship and a Heisman, well … the calculus changes. But that’s very much an if, rather than a when, and a whole lot of programs will be very motivated to ensure that doesn’t happen.
While the football world waits for Arch Manning to make a decision, both the college football and NFL worlds need to plan for both contingencies. Imagine if you need to game-plan for an Arch-led Texas for the next two years. Worse, imagine if you end up with the first pick in the NFL draft … and Arch ends up staying in school.
Arch Manning hasn’t even taken a snap this season, and we’re all wondering where he’ll be next. That’s what you get when you have the power to reshape football on two fronts.
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